A critical part of focusing on what is real is being able to identify what isn’t. For example, the concept of free is an illusion.  We all have “free will”, the power to choose what we think and do. This for me is the biggest fable of all the “frees”. If I have free will why can’t I make myself get out of bed as soon as I wake up? I’ve been trying for five decades! Why can’t I focus on my breathing/mantra for more than 60 seconds when I’m meditating? Again, been at it for decades. I have a never ending list of things I’m unable to do despite my very best efforts and desires. The conclusion I came to long ago, based on my own experience and observation of others, is that free will isn’t real.

What is free will?

Free will is generally defined as the human capacity to make decisions or perform actions independently of any prior event or state of the universe. I honestly don’t get how anyone can believe this. Our mere existence is based on prior events. My creation is a result of my parents getting together-event.  From birth I experienced all sorts of nurturing events to teach me how to be, do, think, ultimately survive in this world.  How can I not be influenced by this? I can’t! I can still hear my mother’s voice in my head when it comes to making decisions even though she has long passed. 

I’ve had many discussions and disagreements over the years about free will. It is one thing to know this experientially, it is another to know it scientifically so I read with great attentiveness what the scientist Robert Sapolsky had to say in his book Determined: Life Without Free Will on this topic. His premise is this:  “we are nothing more or less than the cumulative biological and environmental luck, over which we had no control, that has brought us to any moment.” (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 4)). He reached this conclusion based on his decades long work spanning different fields: from biology, and neurosciences to sociology and psychiatry and even the criminal justice system.  He stressed that his broad scientific experience is an important point because “put all the scientific results together, from all the relevant scientific disciplines, and there’s no room for free will.” (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 8)). To show if we have the ability to “free will” or not, Professor Sapolsky examines influences on our state and behaviour at different times prior to making decisions.  

Seconds to minutes before 

There are a series of neuroscience studies dubbed Libet-style (named after the creator of the original test, Benjamin Libet) conducted to understand our decision making process. In these studies individuals are asked to perform tasks such as picking to press one coloured button over another or taking a left or right turn while driving or when to jump during a bungee-jumping activity. The individuals were then asked to state when they made their choices. Devices such as EEG and fMRI are used to monitor brain activity to compare when they actually decided and when they thought and said they did. The results constantly showed that there is a delay:  “thus,…monitoring the activity of hundreds of millions of neurons down to single neurons, all show that at the moment when we believe that we are consciously and freely choosing to do something, the neurobiological die has already been cast. That sense of conscious intent is an irrelevant afterthought.” (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 24)). In one study decision making happened up to ten seconds before subjects felt they were consciously deciding. This is because the pre-frontal cortex, where executive decisions are made, passes the decision on to the rest of the frontal cortex, which passes it to the premotor cortex, then to the supplementary motor area and, a few steps later, on to your muscles. Moreover, what decision we make within seconds to minutes can be influenced by sensory and aesthetic stimulants.   In one highly cited study, subjects rated their opinions about various sociopolitical topics. And if subjects were sitting in a room with a disgusting smell (versus a neutral one), the average level of warmth both conservatives and liberals reported for gay men decreased. The effect was specific to gay men, with no change in warmth toward lesbians, the elderly, or African Americans (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 47)).

Minutes to hours before

Three different types of hormones can alter what choices you make minutes to hours before. Your level of testosterone can determine if you make impulsive and aggressive decisions.  Moreover, testosterone tilts you toward more risk-taking and impulsivity by strengthening the ability of the amygdala to directly activate behavior, and weakening the ability of the frontal cortex to rein it in. Oxytocin and its related hormone vasopressin have effects that are the polar opposite of testosterone. They decrease excitability in the amygdala. Boost your oxytocin levels experimentally, and you’re more likely to be charitable and trusting in a competitive game.  The level of Oxytocin we are born with determines our ability to have stable relationships, sensitivity to threats and charitableness. (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 53-4)). Glucocorticoids, the third class of hormones,  determine how you react to stress. Your gene variant determines their level, as well as the number and function of Glucocorticoid receptors in your brain. The development of this hormone and its receptors is  dependent on the amount of inflammation you experienced as a fetus, your parents’ socioeconomic status, and your mother’s parenting style (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 56)).

Years and beyond

Moving forward to our longer-term ability to make sound judgement—emotional regulation, defer instant gratification, impulse control and long-term planning–the part of the brain responsible for this is the frontal cortex. This is the last part of the brain to develop. Further, it is the brain region least shaped by genes and most shaped by environment. Thus your adolescent experience of trauma, love, rejection etc. will play an outsized role in constructing the frontal cortex, as do your parental socioeconomic status (SES) in early childhood. For example, low familial SES predicts stunted maturation of the frontal cortex in kindergarteners. (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 64)). The impact of adverse childhood experience (ACE) is so important that it has been formalised into a score. The experiences measured are: abuse, (physical, emotional and sexual), neglect (physical and emotional), and household dysfunction (mental illness, mother being treated violently, divorce, incarcerated relative, substance abuse). Epigenesists have found that,  “for every step higher in one’s ACE score, there is roughly a 35 percent increase in the likelihood of adult antisocial behavior, including violence; poor frontocortical-dependent cognition; problems with impulse control; substance abuse; teen pregnancy and unsafe sex and other risky behaviors; and increased vulnerability to depression and anxiety disorders. Oh, and also poorer health and earlier death.” (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p. 67)).

In addition to the above Prof. Sapolsky also examined the impact of genes, evolution and culture on our ability to practice free will. He concluded: “In order to prove there’s free will, you have to show that some behavior just happened out of thin air in the sense of considering all these biological precursors. It may be possible to sidestep that with some subtle philosophical arguments, but you can’t with anything known to science.” (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p.83)). A question that I had while reading this is, how do we change if there is no free will? He answered: “we don’t change our minds. Our minds, which are the end products of all the biological moments that came before, are changed by circumstances around us (Sapolsky, Robert M. Determined: Life Without Free Will (p.269)). He gave two examples to illustrate this. The first is studies carried out on Aplysia, a giant sea slug that shows how touching its gill affects its nervous system and consequently its behaviour. The second example is how our knowledge of and attitude towards epilepsy and schizophrenia have evolved over centuries due to changes in circumstances. If you are interested in the details see chapters 12 and 13 of the book. Nevertheless, I find his answer encouraging because our circumstances are not permanent, they can change. Hence, why we no longer treat epileptics as witches to be burnt alive or schizophrenics possessing shamanic powers. It is also why a child removed from an abusive home and placed in a loving environment can grow up physically and mentally healthy. 

I will end by saying that though I know that there is no free will I still act at times like there is. Why? Because it gives me hope that I and my fellow humans can will ourselves to be and do better. Boy do I need hope right now!

In times when it feels like you are living in a never ending conspiracy theory, I think the thing to do is to zoom in on and appreciate more than ever what is real. At least this is my strategy.

The supermarket is real. I recently had to take my car to the mechanic for repairs. The first thing I did after I picked it up was drive to the supermarket. Because in the three weeks I was without my car, the thing I most missed was driving to the supermarket. Yeah, I love supermarkets. And not just for convenience and for saving me from the arduous task of having to farm my own food. For which I’m grateful. I realised that it is the place I go to after I’ve been to the gym.  I find that the slow and relaxed strides along the aisles is the least demanding way of cooling down after a work-out. And I get to combine it with the task of grocery shopping.  So when I got to the supermarket that day after I picked up my car it felt like back to reality, which was very comforting. 

I was reminded that the supermarket is also a place I had turned to in my life for comfort. I was living in New York City when 9/11 happened. On that day as the trains were not running I walked from Brooklyn Heights where I was working, all the way to Chelsea, Manhattan, where I was staying. I arrived drained and dazed. Instead of going back to my apartment I headed to the local Whole Foods. As I stepped into the store, I was greeted by a staff member. He looked me in the eye and smiled. The warmth of his smile jolted me out of the daze I had been in all day. I picked up a shopping basket and proceeded to fill it up as if I had an empty fridge at home. I didn’t. But seeing the picture-perfect fruit and vegetables displays, shelves neatly stocked and friendly staff felt real to me as opposed to what was out on the streets that day. I stayed there for a good while.

During Covid lockdown in London I could visit three places: parks, cemeteries and supermarkets. When the first two became too people-ly, I sought refuge in the latter. I discovered that if I went to my local supermarket after 9pm, there was no need to queue-up to enter the premises, I could just walk in. Best of all, it was practically empty. There was no need to fight anyone for the last avocado or packet of rocket because the last hour was when the staff started restocking for the next day of business so the shelves were full. I’d push my trolley with a loose grip swaying to the beat of the music playing overhead. I would make my way to the cashier only after the last store closing announcement. I would find the cashier in an end of shift jovial mood. She would make small talk.  Tell me that I was lucky to have found all the veggies I wanted as they were constantly out since the lockdown started, “People getting healthy, innit?” I’d stride back home feeling like I had had a really fun night out on the town. 

Going to the supermarket can also be life transforming.  Whenever I’m in a new city/country I will invariably find a reason to head to the supermarket as soon as possible. Eight years ago I visited a supermarket called Supermaxi in Quito, Ecuador. It had a pretty impressive selection of local chocolates. I thought they would make good gifts for friends that were chocolate lovers. Up until that point I had detested chocolate and I couldn’t comprehend why it was so popular. But I didn’t want to gift something that I hadn’t tried.  I picked up a bar each of Piccari’s 70% and 85% raw organic chocolate to try. Not only did the pieces I had not make me want to spit them out (as I would have done in the past) but I wanted more. I even experimented with 100% raw dark chocolate! It was bitter with an undertone of sweetness that lingered long after I had eaten it, along with my desire for more. I was floored. Never expected chocolate to taste that good, especially one found in a supermarket. I later discovered that Ecuador is the original home of cacao with a history of chocolate making that dates back 5300 years. Since that discovery, a small piece of dark chocolate has been sweetening my life on a regular basis.

Learnt!

Another very recent discovery is poetry. What? How did I get through the British education system without studying poetry? I didn’t! I just didn’t see the point of it. I was always like, where is the story? Who cares about some stupid words that rhyme?  So I would switch off. And I have stayed off it until a couple of weeks ago. I was reading the comments to this Chris Hedges post, someone shared a poem by Langston Huges titled: Let America Be America Again. First I wasn’t sure what it was I was reading, by the time I realised that it was a poem, I was transfixed. I read the whole thing. Googled for the original poem and re-read it again. I learnt that through a poem you could tell the whole history of a nation. I share a short excerpt below. I highly recommend you read the whole thing here. 

Let America be America again.

Let it be the dream it used to be.

Let it be the pioneer on the plain

Seeking a home where he himself is free.

(America never was America to me.)… 

 

Say, who are you that mumbles in the dark?

And who are you that draws your veil across the stars?

I am the poor white, fooled and pushed apart,

I am the Negro bearing slavery’s scars.

I am the red man driven from the land,

I am the immigrant clutching the hope I seek—

And finding only the same old stupid plan

Of dog eat dog, of mighty crush the weak…

 

Yet I’m the one who dreamt our basic dream

In the Old World while still a serf of kings,

Who dreamt a dream so strong, so brave, so true,

That even yet its mighty daring sings

In every brick and stone, in every furrow turned

That’s made America the land it has become.

O, I’m the man who sailed those early seas

In search of what I meant to be my home—

For I’m the one who left dark Ireland’s shore,

And Poland’s plain, and England’s grassy lea,

And torn from Black Africa’s strand I came

To build a “homeland of the free.”

 

The free?….

 

With another year ending, it seems like it has passed by way faster than previous ones. Could it be because I started this year with another visit to China? Anyone who is familiar with China knows that it runs at 3x faster than anywhere else.  That visit was so invigorating (to see how China is still striving to build and evolve for the better) it brought me out of the funk I was in for most of 2024. What followed from then was a year full of blessings.

Another many more meals shared with old and new friends. Even the most mediocre of dishes can be turned into Michelin starred quality in the company of loved ones.

Another plenty more swims. Only the wild, chilly and dramatic beauty of the Atlantic Ocean could make me abandon my decades long devotion to swimming in a heated pool. There is something seductive about walking towards the sea dreading the chill that awaits, and then discovering that it is way colder than you had remembered from your last swim a day or two ago. You tell yourself as your body screams “Get out! Why are you doing this to me?”, that you just need to stick it out for the first minute and then you will be rewarded with the sight of starfish, and other types of fish as the waves wash away the aches of life. 

Another best present received! My little present, Xiao Liwu, continues to be the gift that keeps giving. I have found joy in his fluffy paws, in his bouncy walk, in the pleasure he takes in eating, and in how he sprawls comfortably right in front of the open freezer door (he is a Siberian after all!). I have admired how he can sleep so deeply and still be beautiful. Even his tiny snores could have been composed by Mozart.

Another language perfected. Well sort of. My Portuguese teacher can’t get me to do any verb conjugation homework (Portuguese has many verb conjugations!!!). But thanks to consuming hours of TV in Brazilian Portuguese I can spend our entire class opining to my teacher, and even act as a translator during BJJ class.

Another pile of books read. Through one of them I (re)learnt that “One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This”. And that,

To preserve the values of the civilized world, it is necessary to set fire to a library. To blow up a mosque. To incinerate olive trees. To dress up in the lingerie of women who fled and then take pictures. To level universities. To loot jewelry, art, banks, food. To arrest children for picking vegetables. To shoot children for throwing stones. To parade the captured in their underwear. To break a man’s teeth and shove a toilet brush in his mouth. To let combat dogs loose on a man with Down syndrome and then leave him to die. Otherwise, the uncivilized world might win.(El Akkad, Omar. One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This (p. 77)).

 

The very history of the word “genocide,” meant as a mechanic of forewarning rather than some after-the-fact resolution, is littered with instances of the world’s most powerful governments going to whatever lengths they can to avoid its usage, because usage is attached to obligation. It was never intended to be enough to simply call something genocide: one is required to act (El Akkad, Omar. One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This (p. 25))

 

One day it will be considered unacceptable, in the polite liberal circles of the West, not to acknowledge all the innocent people killed in that long-ago unpleasantness… One day the social currency of liberalism will accept as legal tender the suffering of those they previously smothered in silence… (El Akkad, Omar. One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This (p. 184))

Another reality that I’ve been trying to come to terms with, is the death of Capitalism. Yanis Varoufakis asserts Capitalism self-mutilated into Technofeudalism with the creation and ascent of tech overlords such as Bezos, Musk, and Zuckerberg. How is this different from Capitalism? 

Capital’s mutation into what I call cloud capital has demolished capitalism’s two pillars: markets and profits… What has happened over the last two decades is that profit and markets have been evicted from the epicentre of our economic and social system, pushed out to its margins, and replaced. With what? Markets, the medium of capitalism, have been replaced by digital trading platforms which look like, but are not, markets, and are better understood as fiefdoms. And profit, the engine of capitalism, has been replaced with its feudal predecessor: rent. Specifically, it is a form of rent that must be paid for access to those platforms and to the cloud more broadly. I call it cloud rent. 

 

As a result, real power today resides not with the owners of traditional capital, such as machinery, buildings, railway and phone networks, industrial robots. They continue to extract profits from workers, from waged labour, but they are not in charge as they once were. As we shall see, they have become vassals in relation to a new class of feudal overlord, the owners of cloud capital. As for the rest of us, we have returned to our former status as serfs, contributing to the wealth and power of the new ruling class with our unpaid labour – in addition to the waged labour we perform, when we get the chance.” (Varoufakis, Yanis. Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism (p. xiii))

I will end here while I continue to ponder Technofeudalism… 

These days we are constantly bombarded with news of how AI is going to eliminate millions of jobs, be our therapists, cure cancer, heck, it will even create a whole new science! I find myself asking what AI is for? Surely, there is no way it can do all these things, right?

I have plenty more questions about AI. Let me start with the two that have puzzled me the longest: How is AI different from previous software and other technologies we’ve had before? I ask this as someone who previously worked in software engineering and in both software and hardware support. Nevertheless, I have checked more than once if I really know what artificial intelligence is. Here are a couple definitions: Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of computers and machines to mimic human problem-solving and decision-making capabilities. AI does this by taking in a myriad of data, processing it, and learning from their past in order to streamline and improve in the future. A normal computer program would need human interference in order to fix bugs and improve processes. I have read these and other definitions over and over again for years now and I just can’t for the life of me see how AI is distinct from other software such as operating systems like macOS, or applications like Excel. Hasn’t Excel been solving mathematical and accounting problems that would normally be done by humans for decades? Google Docs have been providing editing suggestions for years. Granted, now it can actually (re)-write passages for you. Isn’t it simply an improvement of its editing capability? 

“I recently worked with a group from industry, offering a detailed explanation of a technical AI method. After some time, the lead technical member of the group—who had no previous exposure to AI—exclaimed, “But that’s not intelligence! All you’re doing is writing a complete program to solve the problem.” Well folks, I’m sorry–but that’s all there is. There is no magic in AI. All we do is tackle areas and tasks that people previously were unable to write computer programs to handle. Because we have developed sets of tools and methodologies throughout the years to accomplish this… But there is no universal set of magic ideas.” 

When I read this excerpt taken from a recent post by Rodney Brooks, artificial intelligence and robotics scientist and former director of MIT’s AI laboratory, I knew I wasn’t missing something about AI.

As to AI programs not needing human interference to fix bugs and processes, what do you call the gazillion developers that work at OpenAI, xGrok, Meta etc…? To be sure I put the question to AI itself: “who fixes bugs in ChatGPT” 

 xGrok says: “Bugs in ChatGPT, developed by OpenAI, are primarily identified, triaged, and fixed by OpenAI’s internal engineering and software development teams. These teams handle everything from server-side issues and model performance glitches to user interface problems, often using a combination of automated testing, user reports, and iterative deployment processes.

ChatGPT says:“The people who fix bugs in ChatGPT are mainly the engineers and researchers at OpenAI…but they also rely on external security researchers and user reports.”

Which leads me to my second most perplexing question: Why is AI referred to as if it is an autonomous entity? We don’t perceive a plane, a tractor or the telephone as independent beings and these are technologies that have radically transformed our lives. AI as a technology has yet to prove its touted potential yet it is extolled as the messiah. Perhaps it is because AI is a software technology (as opposed to hardware like the aforementioned ones) that can process huge amounts of information and do complex computations. But then, how can a software that eats and breathes a shit ton of data created by humans and follows their instructions be self-determining? Not even humans who created AI are autonomous entities, we exist because we are created by our parents, we grow and are sustained by food and mental stimuli produced by other humans.

Human Replacement

Even if it were possible for AI to be autonomous, why would we want to create such a system? It could be because we wish to create an advanced version of ourselves. Max Tegmark calls this version Life 3.0. In his book titled Life 3.0: Human Beings In The Age of Artificial Intelligence he describes three stages of life. He defines life as a combination of hardware and software. Our DNA is the hardware (the body), and the software is behaviour and instincts. Life 1.0 is unable to design its hardware and software, it is determined by DNA and evolution. Bacteria are an example of this. Life 2.0 is a species whose hardware has evolved and it can largely design its own software through learning. Humans fit into this category. Our software is the knowledge we acquire by learning to read, write, build bridges, cure illnesses, etc. Through learning we have managed to a limited extent change part of our hardware, e.g. we can perform heart replacement and breast enlargement. But ultimately our human hardware has evolved very little in thousands of years, and we are still limited by how long we live and diseases. However, Life 3.0 can overcome the limitations of Life 2.0 as it can design both its hardware and software. It is the master of its own destiny. An example of this is AI, particularly its branch of artificial general intelligence (AGI) with capabilities beyond human level.

Some argue that we need AI to release us from the toil of life so we can have more leisure time. Bill Gates asserts that in the next decade AI will replace humans for most tasks, which would enable us to work only 2 days a week. Unless you are in certain professions like nursing and baseball. Apparently AI won’t be able to feed you your medication or draw blood, nor do people want to watch machines playing baseball. 

Another reason why we would need AI to replace humans is that human workers are expensive. Labour, on average, accounts for about 70% of business costs. Imagine a world where you can have labour on tap 24/7, without toilet or lunch breaks, no holidays or sick days off and no health insurance benefits. Just picture the profit margins in such a world! Well, many companies have started to imagine this world. Amazon announced 14000 job cuts citing  AI as the main cause. Salesforce recently eliminated 4000 positions as a result of “the benefits and efficiencies” of AI. It turns out that their optimism is premature. Some of the companies that have carried out AI influenced layoffs have had to rehire humans. Klarna in 2024 fired 700 staff as its AI Assistant could replace them, but almost a year later it had to rehire them all back because it discovered that real people are actually better at dealing with real people! Even OpenAI admitted that the best AI models are no match for human coders and are unable to solve the vast majority of coding tasks. Another study by the non-profit organisation, Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR) found that when programmers use AI assistant programming tools, they are slower. They spend 19% more time as they have to review and correct AI output. 

I find it fascinating that there are those who believe that we can create a better or more advanced version of us humans. I totally get it. I too would love to see a better us, less violent, more aware, less greedy, more kind, less lazy, more hardworking… Nevertheless, I doubt it can come from us. After all,  a foundational principle of computer science is “Garbage in, garbage out”, meaning that the quality of your output is based on the quality of the input. AI can only reflect the input we give it. For example, LLMs hallucinate because we humans, their creators, also hallucinate. AI can also create beautiful images because we can too. 

Human Creation

Regardless of whether we will achieve the goal of creating an advanced human replacement, there are two things I’m certain of. I don’t say this because I have a crystal ball, I say it based on historical evidence. First thing, AI will not eliminate most jobs nor do most things as Bill Gates predicted. I believe like any major technology AI will transform what we do.  An example is the arrival of tractors, harvesters and other mechanical farming equipment. Before they were invented in the 19th century, about 60% of the population worked in agriculture, now it is less than 10%. The jobs the machines eliminated from farming were created elsewhere such as in factories, and shops. Another example is spreadsheet apps such as Lotus 123 and  Excel. When the spreadsheet was first introduced in the early 1980s it was predicted that it would eliminate bookkeeping jobs. Yes, it did. However it increased the number of accountants. According to a study by Morgan Stanley, in the US there was a reduction in the number of people working as bookkeepers and accounting/auditing clerks (from ~2 million in 1987 to just above 1.5 million by 2000) but there was a significant increase in Americans employed as accountants/auditors (rising from ~1.3 million in 1987 to ~1.5 million in 2000) and management analysts and  financial managers (from ~0.6 million in 1987 to ~1.5 million in 2000). This is because the spreadsheet increased the complexity of accounting tasks that could be done and thus required more skilled workers. 

Another word for complexity is messy. Which brings me to the second thing I’m sure of. Humans will still be needed to clean up the mess we, hmmm, AI will generate. This has been true of many technologies regardless of how beneficial they are. Take large scale generation and distribution of electricity. It completely transformed our lives by enabling the creation of comforts such as light bulbs, refrigerators and cars, and industries like telecommunications, computing and aviation. However, it has also had a detrimental impact on our environment and health. Electricity is generated mostly from fossil fuels, as of 2024 it is at 81%.  Fossil fuels are the biggest producers of greenhouse gases with detrimental impact on both our environment and health (it is estimated that air pollution is the cause of ~7 million deaths per year). We’ve been trying to replace fossil fuel electricity generation with cleaner alternatives like solar, wind and nuclear for decades. Even though these are cleaner as far as emissions go, they come with a different type of mess. Nuclear energy produces hard to discard toxic waste. And solar panels have a recyclability problem, currently only 10% are recycled and the rest ends up in landfills because the way the panels are built makes it difficult and costly to recycle. So in all of the above examples we have a whole bunch of humans working to clear up the mess the technologies we invented have generated.  Which brings to the next thing I find bewildering about AI, why does it require so much electricity?

A MIT Tech Review report shows that from 2005 to 2017 the amount of electricity needed to run data centers remained flat thanks to increases in efficiency, despite the construction of armies of new data centers to serve the rise of cloud-based online services, from Facebook to Netflix. The introduction of energy intensive AI hardware starting in 2017 in data centres in the US caused their national share of  electricity consumption levels to increase from 1.9% in 2018 to 4.4% in 2023. Their share is forecasted to increase to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028 depending on levels of efficiency attained. Nevertheless, the Tech Review report asserts that these predictions do not reflect the full picture. The most intensive part of AI isn’t training the models, it is inference (how consumers query the models), estimated to command about 80-90% of computing power. To put this into perspective, training OpenAI’s GPT-4 consumed 50 gigawatt-hours of energy, enough to power San Francisco for three days. How much energy is consumed to query this model or any other depends on several factors such as what type of device used, what time of the day, which energy grid, and location of data centre. Tech companies don’t make this information available as they are classed as trade secrets. What is clear is that an enormous amount of electricity is needed hence why tech companies like Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are firing-up nuclear power plants. But it will take years before any energy materializes from these plants. In the meantime, these data centres have to rely on more carbon intensive sources (like gas and coal) of electricity. As it is, the carbon intensity of electricity used by data centers is 48% higher than the US average.

This is what confuses me, why create AI systems that need so much electricity (they are other resources too that AI is guzzling up like water but we will save this for another time) that will most likely come from fossil fuels? The problem of intermittency makes renewables such as wind and solar unsuitable since data centres need to operate 24/7 without interruptions. We have known about the impact of burning fossil fuels on the environment for over a century. It could be argued that the field of AI is new and needs time to become more efficient and resolve the issues of needing enormous amounts of resources. AI research is said to officially start in 1956. So there has been plenty of time and available information to inform a more efficient system design. The emergence of Deepseek’s R-1 model earlier this year shows that with intent a cheaper and more efficient AI model is possible. R-1 was created for $6 million vs OpenAI’s ChatGTP4 which cost $100 million and it leverages 8-bit precision for calculations instead of the standard 32-bit, reducing the computational power and energy needed. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not anti-AI. I use it every day.  I appreciate its language translation capability. It is way faster at coming up with the right Portuguese verb conjugations (there are so many) than I am. It is also more effective at spotting typos and grammar errors. It has made Google and Duck Duck Go search engines more powerful. What I object to is making AI out to be more than it is. It is a tool like other tools we’ve invented before, it will have benefits, drawbacks and limitations. I also find the claim that it will do most tasks humans can and better to be highly suspect. What do we think will happen to billions of idle humans while AI is busy working away? Just look at a group of idle teenagers and what they get up to, multiply that by millions. We can’t all become baseball players or spend all our time working out in the gym.  Actually, this is an area I for one would love for AI to tackle. Why can’t they develop AI that will do for me all the things I dislike doing like working-out but I still get the physical and mental benefits? Or an AI system that will unload the dishwasher and washing machine for me? Why can’t it solve big problems like income inequality or reducing greenhouse gas emissions instead of adding to it? The fact is that we don’t know exactly what this tool called AI will do as it is still evolving. But we can decide what it will do. We can make it beneficial for us and not to replace us. Further, if we continue to treat it like its own entity we miss this opportunity. As the computer scientist, Janon Lanier, put its:

When you treat the technology as its own beneficiary, you miss a lot of opportunities to make it better. I see this in AI all the time. I see people saying, “Well, if we did this, it would pass the Turing test better, and if we did that, it would seem more like it was an independent mind.”… 

One example is that we’ve deliberately designed large-model AI to obscure the original human sources of the data that the AI is trained on to help create this illusion of the new entity. But when we do that, we make it harder to do quality control. We make it harder to do authentication and to detect malicious uses of the model because we can’t tell what the intent is, what data it’s drawing upon. We’re sort of willfully making ourselves blind in a way that we probably don’t really need to. (From the Gray Area Podcast)

I remember that rare sunny summer’s day in London, at my local park 4 years ago when a conversation with a man doing his Judo drills inspired me to give it a go. Instead I took up BJJ (Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu), the training studio was more conveniently located to my home than a Judo studio. I figured it would do since BJJ is derived from Judo. When I started my wish was to become a Samurai because I had read somewhere that the Samurai drank matcha before a battle. For over a decade, I have drank a cup of matcha first thing in the morning before I face the battle that is life. All I was missing was some martial arts skills!  And Jiu-Jitsu was one of the martial arts used by Samurai. I imagined that it was going to be this beautiful Zen experience of discipline, growth and strength, the world better watch out! How am I doing, after almost 4 years of training? Well, I have gotten even better at drinking matcha, so much so that there is a global shortage. As for the rest, let’s just say that I often think about the old saying of “be careful what you wish for…” 

For a start, I’ve gotten really sweaty! I’ve done all sorts of exercises, running, HIIT, Spinning, weights etc… None of them has made me sweat half as much as BJJ. By 15 minutes into the class, which is just after we are done with the warm up, I’m using the sleeves of my kimono to wipe droplets of sweat from my face to prevent them from landing on my training partner. If it is a no-gi class(where we wear a rash guard and shorts instead of the traditional Japanese martial arts uniform of cotton kimono and trousers), it’s even more sweaty irrespective of how high-tech moisture/sweat-wicking the fabrics are.  When we start sparring not only do you have to worry about your opponent slipping away from you, but also you slipping up on the splashes of sweat on the mat. After the class, our training clothes are so soaked in sweat that you have to rush home to put them in the washing machine. If you don’t, be prepared for the clothes to stink out your car or anywhere else you may put them while you wait to wash them. 

I used to get compliments on how lovely and shapely my fingers are. Now, every time I look at my fingers, all  I see are scrapes. They are mostly shallow because I usually wrap tape around them, and my toes too, before each class. One of my BJJ classmates once joked that I look like a mummy. I also see my right index finger’s slightly wonky top knuckle. The hands of black belt Jiujiteiros (what BJJ practitioners are called in Portuguese) are worse than builders’ hands. Builders can wear gloves to protect their hands, but Jiujiteiros can’t so their hands are callused. I’m hoping that someone will invent BJJ training gloves soon. Maybe they will also invent a shield for my limbs which are often covered in bruises. When I don’t have bruises, I have soreness from opponents trying to choke me and lock my limbs. And there is the Jumper’s knee, a.k.a a guy falling on top of my right knee in class while we were practicing a Judo takedown move. This was such a shock to my body that I had to take a couple of months off BJJ. The upside is that I ended up getting a personal trainer (PT) to speed up the recovery process (and to save me from the BORING rehabilitation exercises the physiotherapist prescribed). Tiago my PT, with his long beard, never seen without Buddhist beads around his neck, either barefooted or wearing Birkenstock rubber sandals with socks. Without fail he will welcome me with a bear hug. I’m always glad to see him and have plenty to tell him. He says I talk a lot to get more rest time in between sets. I laugh a lot during our sessions. So much that some of the other gym goers have commented to him that he isn’t pushing me enough otherwise I wouldn’t be having so much fun. On the contrary, his sessions are very challenging. He arrives at each session with a clipboard of my training plan (coordinated with my physiotherapist), he reads off the exercises to be done, and get through them we must! 

I’ve been asked, especially during the first couple of months after my knee injury when I struggled to walk, if I’m going to stop BJJ? One friend said I should stop it and take up a sport less strenuous on the body and more age appropriate. Incidentally, I’m the second oldest person at the studio. The oldest, also a blue belt like me, has a black belt in Judo and has been practicing martial arts since he was a kid.  To be honest nobody cares what age I am, it is all about mastering the techniques. You will get injured regardless of what age you are. A thirty-something year old Jiujiteiro told me he had had 9 knee surgeries from various sports over the years. His knees are fine. He said my knee will be fine too so long as I do the strengthening exercises mandated by my physiotherapist. Another guy, a brown belt who has some issues with his knee, said he just wears a knee brace, and he trains 6 days a week.  I intend to continue training BJJ.  Not because I love it. I don’t. The guys I train with are surprised when I tell them this. I’m not even sure if I like it, never mind love. Why not, they asked? I reply, “why would I love getting beaten up several times a week?” Once, a guy with a purple belt replied: “Look, we get beaten up by life all the time. At least with BJJ, you learn to breathe through it.” Learning is the key reason why I’m still training BJJ. 

I figured if I just stick to BJJ it would do for any amount of learning I need to do for the rest of my life. There is so much to learn, starting with the basic techniques and their variations and the steady stream of new inventions.  Every time I attend a class I’m reminded of how little I know. I can’t even say that I have mastered the basic techniques including learning to breathe and relax under pressure. Breathing is so basic and “bem simple” as our senior professor likes to say whenever he teaches us a technique, that it is both puzzling and humbling to see how hard it is to do under pressure. That’s another big benefit of BJJ, you are forced to be in situations that get you out of your comfort zone. I’m pushed to test out the techniques I’m learning with opponents with different shapes, sizes and styles, in various scenarios. The scenario I dread the most is called shark tank. This is when you stay in the middle of the mat and fight every single person in the room for 90 seconds back to back. If there are 10 people in class that day then that’s how many you will fight. Nevertheless, I dread going to class less than I used to. Not sure if it is because I’m used to it or I have gotten better? Or perhaps it is because my current studio is located across the street from the ocean?  I often go and have a swim after the class. The cold Atlantic water never fails to wash away some of my aches.

When I left my previous BJJ studio after two and half years, I told them that I’d continue training for another couple of years if the people at my next studio were half as lovely as they were. They are. One thing I haven’t quite figured out is how the best fighters are also the loveliest and most generous at every studio I’ve trained at. I attach myself to them because I know that they will take time to teach me. Even during sparring, they guide me on how to better defend myself from their force and even over power them.  

“Entra guerreira!” This is what our senior professor says to me every time I arrive at class and ask for permission to step on the training mat. Guerreira/o is a warrior in Portuguese. I used to think that it was an exaggerated term of endearment. But I’ve come to realize that it is apt as I have to fight myself to show up to train BJJ. As our senior professor likes to remind us, your biggest opponent is yourself and it is the first person you must learn to control. My wish now is no longer to be a Samurai. My wish now is to keep showing up week after week like the guerreira that I am.

The most exciting thing to have happened to me this summer weighs about a kilo of a mixture of light to dark grey fur, has green eyes and a squeaky meow. I named him Xiao Liwu (小礼物)which means little present in Mandarin.

For as long as I could remember I didn’t get why people would have pets. Cleaning up dog poop, cat litter littered (no pun intended) all over the floor, your favourite shoes chewed away and your clothes constantly covered in fur. No thanks!  Not even when I looked after my god children’s pets nor cat sat for my neighbors did I form any real connection. Then Covid happened. During the Covid lockdown I had the habit of going out for a walk at night. I had my preferred routes, usually the ones that were flat plains and lined with trees. However, one day I decided to change things up a bit and challenge myself by going up a road with the steepest incline in my neighborhood. I had just panted my way to the top of the hill, and stopped to recover my breath. A cat walked towards me and stopped in front of me. It was a robust tabby that had a long, ample fluffy coat that made it look bigger than its actual size. The cat looked at me with its bright and welcoming eyes. It was the most beautiful cat I had ever seen. Bewitched, I approached it, bent down to pet it. I broke my rule of never petting a street/strange animal. I stayed petting and talking to the cat until it went off into one of the houses. I continued my walk with more bounce in my steps. The moment I got home I told my partner that I had met the most beautiful cat ever. As a cat person who had lived with cats all her life, she was skeptical. She asked what made her more beautiful than any other cat I had seen.  I couldn’t say exactly. I simply replied: “You have to see her to believe it.” From that day onwards, I always took that route with the hope that I would once again see her. Sometimes I did, sometimes I didn’t. On the days that I saw her I felt like I was blessed with light that not only brightened the darkness of the night but of that lockdown period. One day my partner agreed to come on a walk with me to meet the kitty I had been going on about. As luck would have it, we did bump into the Vesta Road cat, as I came to call her. My partner agreed that she was indeed a beautiful cat! Towards the end of summer of 2021, a month passed without me seeing her.  I was worried something had happened to her.  I approached one of the houses on Vesta Road where I often saw her. I pressed the bell and waited for someone to come to the door. The next door neighbor arrived, I explained I was inquiring about the gorgeous super friendly fluffy tabby cat. She informed me that the cat did live next door but she had moved away with its owner about a month or so ago hence why I hadn’t seen her. She told me that they too missed her. I walked away relieved that she was alive and well.  I was very sad that I would never see the Vesta road cat again. It is no exaggeration to say that she was one of the things that got me through the gloom of Covid lockdown in London. 

Back to Little Present

A year ago we decided to get another cat to keep my step-cat company. I really wanted one just like the Vesta Road cat! Though I always had my phone with me when I went on my night time walks, I only took the picture of that cat once  to ask a friend about her breed. The picture came out blurry so I never figured out what type of breed she was. Instead, I would settle for having just a fluffy cat. Our older cat is short-haired and plush. We looked for months at cat shelters for one to adopt without much luck. In the meantime, I got to learn about different breeds of cats, Short-haired, Scottish Fold, Persian etc… Then I was introduced to cat-influencers Siberian-Reinhardt, two Siberian cats traveling the world. Yep, you read correctly, Rein and Percy as they are called, travel the world, sometimes in business class! According to their website, they have been to 15 countries and have over half million followers on Instagram. I loved how floofy they were so much that I wanted a cat just like them. 

Six weeks ago Xiao Liwu, a 4 month old grey Siberian kitty arrived. Prior to his arrival I was both excited and anxious: what if he didn’t get on with our existing cat or if we didn’t like each other? The moment Liwu was let out of his carrier, he walked around smelling every object and being including the big kitty (what we started calling our older cat as she is now the bigger one). Big kitty snarled at the new smaller kitty, but he was unfazed by her hostility and continued with his exploration. We couldn’t detect any fear or timidness in him as he moved from room to room. Neither could we see signs of the stress he may have experienced from the long day of traveling caused by long flight delays and a stop-over. To protect him from the snarls and hissing from the older cat, furious with the invasion of her space, I picked him up.  He didn’t try to wiggle out of my arms or meow in protest. He settled into my arms and rested his small head on my chest. What?!?! A kitty that likes to be carried! Our older cat avoids being carried. On the rare occasions that she lets herself be carried (I’m pretty sure it is out of pity because she knows how much I adore carrying her), she will meow incessantly to be put down after about 30 seconds or just wiggle herself out of my arms. I had wished for a cat that liked to be carried. I looked down at Liwu, it was way past 30 seconds and he was content to be there. I was smitten! By the next day, Liwu had fully made himself at home. He didn’t stay in the space we created for him away from the big kitty. He ate and drank from her bowls, sat on her favourite blanket, used her litter box (she did the same to him). And he kept trying to get close to her undeterred by her hissing at him. He came from a home full of friendly cats and a giant dog so the concept of a hostile cat seemed strange to him. She, on the other hand, had been the only cat in the family for 7 years. But he refused to accept defeat, and it took him about three weeks to win her over. She now allows him to hang out with her and will even play with him. Around the same time, she let me lift her up and carry her again to show that I’m finally forgiven for bringing a foreign cat into her space. 

Ailurophilia

I’ve been trying to figure out what it is about these felines that I love so much. I sought counsel. A friend who lives with 6 cats said they teach her how to live. I asked for further clarification, she said: “they just live.” Another said it is because they are entertaining. A third replied: “they are just so cute.” Since I’m not satisfied with my friends’ explanations, I went to the internet.  It turned out that part of the reason why we humans are attracted to cats is indeed because they are entertaining and cute. Cats give us “special unique permission to stroke/ pet them and keep them on our laps, which we know releases oxytocin, which in turn suppresses the production of cortisol, a stress hormone.”Oxytocin is also known as the love hormone. Bingo! I finally understood the tranquility I feel every time I pet my felines, the smile that takes over my face every time I see their faces, the warmth that radiates holding them and the chuckle that escapes my mouth when I hear them meow. It has to be because I’m loved up, right? Why else would I, a clean freak, put up with vacuuming the  never ending bits of cat litter all over my floors and the layers of hairs on my clothes? Sometimes, I even allow the older kitty into my closet to hide and snooze on a pile of my clothes. Why would I cheerfully give up my favourite and most comfortable chair in the house for them to nap on while I sit on a back aching one or stand? And there is my treasured wool rug, hand woven by a granny in Tanzania that the cats scratch their claws on instead of the two scratching trees we got them. And when I shoo them away from it, they will do it on the sofa instead.  I guess this is what they mean by unconditional love. 

Since my little present arrived I feel that my ability to love has expanded. I didn’t know that I was capable of uttering “I love you” a gazillion times a day. Every time he allows me to pick him up, the words just escape from my mouth. And at the same time, I still try to pick up our older cat, and express my love verbally and through petting. Because my love for her hasn’t changed or diminished since the new kitty arrived. In fact, I actually appreciate her more. She is calm. She can stay lying down under a blanket or in the closet for hours. No amount of prodding will bring her out. However, she will take a break to come and find me to say hello and sit close to me.  And she never demands or shows any interest in food other than her dry kibble so we never have to worry about fending her off eating off our plate. 

In the time my little present has been around I haven’t had a gloomy and dull day. In the mornings, I no longer have time to think of how I don’t want to get up and out of bed. The moment he detects I’m awake, he jumps on the bed and settles himself on my chest and purrs away any grogginess that I may be feeling. I’ve finally discovered what Zen meditation is. It is having a cat sit in the palms of your hands resting on your lap, purring away. And every time he joins me for my meditation practice I feel closer to achieving enlightenment. When I’m sitting at my desk, working, he leaps up, right onto the keyboard on my laptop, plunks himself down so I would have to lift him up in my arms. If I put him down, he would just jump right back up. He wouldn’t stop until I gave up and held him. Work be damned. I would giggle away. I used to have to rely on TV shows as background noise to mask the monotony of cooking. Now, I have Liwu clamouring at my feet to have a closer look at and smell whatever it is I’m concocting. If he likes the smell, he will meow away until he gets a taste. He would eat with such gusto that I’d wonder if I shouldn’t go on Master Chef. I also wonder if I shouldn’t have named him Big Present because that is what he has turned out to be in my life. 

Perfect Victims by Mohammed El-Kurd

The author Arundhati Roy wrote in reviewing the Perfect Victims: “Here’s a river of fire. Dive in, if you dare. It will clear the fog.” I dared. Not only did it clear the fog but it also amplified my vision. It was an incredibly moving and thought provoking read that challenges the predominant narratives about Palestinians. This is the best book I’ve read all summer, possibly this year. 

For those of us looking at recent major global events (Covid, live-streamed genocide, US trade wars with China, Europe and rest of the world, the rise, and rise, and fall then crash of cryptocurrencies, the vanishing of NFTs, etc…) and wondering: what’s next?

Ray Dalio answers: “The times ahead will be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes, though similar to many times in history.” (Dalio, Ray. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail(p. 1).

How does Dalio know this? Because he has spent the past five decades schooling himself on the history of empires and global economies to detect patterns of events, their cause and effect. He did this in order to successfully meet his obligations as an investment manager at Bridgewater, an asset management company he founded. He studied major empires such as the British, Dutch, French, German, Russian, US, Indian and Japanese for a period of 500 years, and the Chinese empire for 600 years.  He saw that great empires typically lasted roughly 250 years, give or take 150 years, with big economic, debt, and political cycles within them lasting about 50 to 100 years (Dalio, Ray. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (p. 14).

He discovered that there was an archetypical big cycle of power that an empire goes through. First, it rises in influence through sound leadership, innovation and strong productivity. If it is able to sustain this growth for a long period it will acquire mass wealth that includes military prowess, and reach the top of its game. If it does this better than any other nation, it will become the leading global power. Eventually, the empire will become complacent, and start to overspend on costly expenditures like wars and bail outs of mismanaged companies deemed “too big to fail”. To fund them it will borrow huge amounts of money, creating debts that have to be serviced. Increasingly,  fewer and fewer resources go into education and infrastructure, consequently productivity declines as does the standard of living for citizens. Discontent leads to conflict and fighting amongst different social and political groups. The empire’s descent ensues.  There can be several empires at the same time competing, however, there is typically one that dominates the world order. This big cycle “produces swings between 1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and 2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish.” (Dalio, Ray. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (p. 3). After a period of depression and wars between empires comes a new world order, and the big cycle begins again. For example, the end of WWII saw the creation of a new world order and the US became the dominant global power. 

The big cycle has clear markers to allow us to see where we are in it. He identified eighteen determinants as can be seen in the chart below. However, there are eight key ones that propels a nation to the top: 1) education, 2) competitiveness, 3) innovation and technology, 4) economic output, 5) share of world trade, 6) military strength, 7) financial center strength, and 8) reserve currency status. The determinants that lead to the decline of a nation are: large long-term debt, internal disorder caused by increasing wealth gaps and raising cost of living, and the external disorder, fighting (consistent) wars which are costly and trade/economic wars (e.g. sanctions and tariffs).

Where are we right now?

It is now 80 years since the last new world order started after WWII. The US and other major old empires such as the UK, and France are saddled with large debts and monetary policies that don’t work well. They have tried to fill in their financial holes by giving out a lot of money that they are borrowing, while central banks have tried to help by printing a lot of money (i.e., monetizing government debt). At the same time there are big wealth and value gaps and a rising world power, China, that is competing with the leading world power, US, in trade, technology development, capital markets, and geopolitics. 

According to Dalio, his model suggests that currently the US “is roughly 70 percent through its Big Cycle, plus or minus 10 percent. The United States has not yet crossed the line into the phase of a civil war/revolution, when the active fighting begins, but internal conflict is high and rising.”(Dalio, Ray. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (p. 360).

Dalio highlighted that China was dominant for centuries (consistently out-competing Europe economically and otherwise), though it entered a steep decline starting in the 1800s. This is the period the Chinese dubbed as the century of humiliation when it was plagued by weak leadership in the Qing dynasty, foreign intervention, and invasions by the British, Japanese and other European powers. Current Chinese leaders including Xi Jinping are adamant that history must never be repeated. 

Nevertheless, Dalio stresses that cycles come and go, the only thing that is constant and can’t be deterred is evolution. This is because evolution comes from our ability as humans to adapt and learn. It has propelled us to keep moving forward and improving irrespective of cycles of prosperity and destruction. For example, since 1800 despite multiple global wars and financial crises the average life expectancy has gone from 28.5 years to 73.2 in 2023. 

Why is it important that we know where we are?

Because he believes as per the quote at the beginning of this piece that times ahead will be radically different to what we’ve experienced in our lifetime and he would like for us to be prepared for what’s to come. Hence why he decided to share his decades of observations and tools publicly. I for one I’m grateful that he did. Even though I was somewhat versed in the history of the major empires I still found his observations and categorization of key determinants of wealth and power, especially the part about the impact of reserve currency, and long-term debt both insightful and novel. Notwithstanding, I feel we’ve already passed the radically different stage. I believe it happened with the global (bar a few countries such as Sweden and Uruguay) lockdown because of Covid-19. Followed by the livestreaming of genocide that has gone on for over a year without the US and other leading Western countries that have since before my lifetime marketed themselves as harbinger and defender of humanrights and justice intervening to stop it. Also, I’m not sure how better prepared I am for what is to come than before I picked up the book. Seriously, how does one prepare oneself for a potential global conflict that could involve nuclear weapons? Since the last world war, nuclear weapons and highly sophisticated missiles are much more widespread and under the command of mostly amoral and/or inept leadership.  One thing for sure is that evolution will continue, hopefully in an upward trend as it has done for centuries.

My recent trip to China and Singapore had me reflecting on discussions I’ve had on the merits of Western capitalist system. The discussion tends to end with someone (not me) saying: “it isn’t perfect but it is still the best we have.” By “we” they mean the world. If I respond that I’m not sure it is still the best we have, especially if you look at China and what its economic model has achieved, they would defensively respond: “it is a communist state and there is no freedom.” And when I correct them that China hasn’t been a communist state for decades, it goes on deaf ears. As an ordinary person who has spent a considerable amount of time living in both the West and China, I didn’t feel more free in one or the other. I never felt unfree in China.  It is one thing to hold outdated views about a far away nation, it is another to hold the same about your own society. So I’m baffled that despite ample evidence that many in the West are adamant that our economic system is “still the best we have”. 

It dawned on me that the people who usually insist that capitalism is the best we have are usually from the top echelons of society. In other words the people who have benefited the most from the system. Let’s look at the U.S., the epicenter of capitalism. The top 1% saw their wealth increase from 22.8% in 1989 to 30.5% in 2024, and the top 20% ‘s wealth (excluding the top 1%) increased from 43.9% in 1989 to 45.2% in 2022. While the bottom 50% saw its wealth shrink from 3.5% in 1989 to 2.8% in 2024. This is not surprising if you look at the wages for the middle and lower quintiles.  According to a 2018 study by the Pew Research Center, real average wage (after accounting for inflation) for the middle and lower quintiles has about the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago. And what wage gains there have been have mostly flowed to the highest-paid tier of workers. A more recent study showed that, over the long run, from 1979 to 2023, wages for the top 1% skyrocketed by 181.7% and wages for the bottom 90% grew just 43.7%. Notwithstanding 73% of US workers are estimated to be struggling and unable to afford anything beyond their basic needs. In 2024, 41 million people in the US received food stamps with working families accounting for 38% of the recipients. Similar wealth distribution patterns can be observed in Europe. For example, in Germany, the  top 1% owns 30.4% of its wealth.

You could argue that I’m practicing recent-ism as I’m just going back three decades. What about looking at a longer period, say a  hundred or two hundred years ago? After all, Western  (I say this because it was created in the West) capitalism has been around for hundreds of years. As I have mentioned a couple of times before, I’m an avid student of history, so fine, let’s do it. Better still let Thomas Picketty, a renowned economist do it for us. In his best-selling book Capital In The Twenty First Century he documents wealth distribution in Europe and the US over 200 years starting in 1810, ending in 2010. By 1810 capitalism as an economic system was already established in Europe and the US. As per the chart below, you will see that the top percentile of the population has always retained the lion’s share of wealth from capitalism. There was a short period between the two world wars of the 20th century and after, till the 1970s where there was a dramatic reduction in the top percentile’s share. But they have started to recover the lost share since 1980.  

Basic Economics

One could also argue that wealth distribution isn’t the only indicator or whether an economic system works or not. Absolutely! However, if I recall correctly from studying economics, it is a key measurement as it shows how well economic policies are working for its population. Nevertheless, I thought it was a good time to brush up again on my knowledge of economics. 

I turned to Economics: The User’s Guide by Ha-Joon Chang. Since the two previous books (23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism and Edible Economics) I had read by the author were both refreshing and excellent, I hoped this one would be much more interesting and accessible than the economics textbooks I read at college and the vast majority of books I’ve read since on the topic. I wasn’t disappointed. And I appreciated that he addressed some of my peeves about the study of economics. Ha-Joon Chang wrote that he dislikes how economists over the past decades have successfully led us to believe that it is a science like physics and chemistry and thus there is only one conclusive approach to doing economics—neoclassical school’s way. This school of thought advocates that economics is a study of rational choice, made on the basis of deliberate, systematic calculation of the maximum extent to which the ends can be met by using the inevitably scarce means. Not only that, economists have also inflated the job of economics to explain life, the universe and everything else. As far as he is concerned “the subject matter of economics should be the economy – which involves money, work, technology, international trade, taxes and other things that have to do with the ways in which we produce goods and services, distribute the incomes generated in the process and consume the things thus produced.” (Chang, Ha-Joon. Economics: The User’s Guide (p. 27)). Amen!

Primarily, I also came to this book with the expectation that it might help me figure out whether Western capitalism is indeed the best we have. It did. The crux of the argument that I’ve heard over and over is that capitalism’s superiority lies in its free trade and free market principles and practices. I’ve long believed this to be a load of hogwash. I remembered when I was first taught this concept in the UK when I was studying for my A levels Economics, I just couldn’t get my head around what I was being taught. For a start, being a child of Nigeria, I was cognizant that Britain’s history of capitalism is very much rooted in the pillage of both natural and human resources from Nigeria and its other colonies. Secondly, I also knew how the IMF and World Bank, working at the behest of Western capitalist societies, forced Third World Countries (as they used to be called) to implement economic policies such as  structural adjustment program (SAP) as conditions to granting them loans and it had detrimental effects. SAP subverted the few economic developments that had been achieved since independence from the British. SAP required Third World countries’ governments to cut spending in areas such as education, health and infrastructure while opening up their countries to foreign investment, imports and devaluation of their currencies. These were policies that were more suitable for countries that were already developed and that had robust economic and political institutions which Nigeria didn’t have. Needless to say I barely passed that class. And that economics class was part of my motivation for studying history at university to help me make sense of the world.

Free Trade Not

Ha-Joon Chang chronicles the history of capitalism and dispels the notion that it is rooted in free trade and that its principles and practices are based on the timeless law of science. As I was making my way through it I kept thinking about how powerful the free trade/market narrative around capitalism has been in spite of so much well documented evidence to the contrary. No need to get into evidence around slavery and colonies again. However, there was nothing free about kids forced to work in factories in Britain during the industrial revolution period. Nor were the Chinese free to reject Britain’s request to allow imports of its manufactured products into China. The British forced their hands by flooding the country with opium, then started a war until a “free” trade treaty, the Nanjing treaty was signed in 1842. Some of the biggest proponents of free market, investment banks, in 2008, had no qualms abandoning their principle to plead for government intervention in the form of bail out money.  They received billions of dollars from governments around the world after their excessive risky trading in financial instruments such as Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) and Collateral Debt Obligations (CDO) and lack of regulatory oversight caused the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression of 1929.

Going back to the short period in the practice of capitalism, 1950 to 1973 when the share of wealth of the top percentile reduced sharply, this period according to Chang was the ‘golden age of capitalism’.  Because Western Europe’s per capita income grew at an astonishing rate of 4.1% per year, the US grew more slowly, but at an unprecedented rate of 2.5%. West Germany grew at 5.0%, while Japan grew even faster at 8.1% (Chang, Ha-Joon. Economics: The User’s Guide (p. 79)). And unemployment was virtually eliminated in these countries. This growth came about not because the practice of capitalism was at its optimum best but as a result of Western government taking the best aspect of socialism and marrying it with that of capitalism. After the Great Depression had shown the limits of laissez-faire capitalism, and the need to rebuild economies after the end of WWII, Western governments (including Japan) adopted a greater role in managing the economy. Many European governments took private enterprises into public ownership or set up new public enterprises, or state-owned enterprises (SOEs), in key industries, such as steel, railways, banking and energy (coal, nuclear and electricity). And some of these governments (e.g. France and Japan) coordinated their industrial policies across sectors through a 5 year plan, known as indicative planning, to distinguish it from the ‘directive’ Soviet central planning (Chang, Ha-Joon. Economics: The User’s Guide (p. 85)). The US government greatly influenced the economy by providing massive research funding to advance areas such as computers, pharmaceuticals and aircraft. And it implemented strict regulations for the banking sector, as did European governments. Thus, another noticeable feature of this period is that there was a very high degree of financial stability. During the Golden Age, virtually no country was in a banking crisis. In contrast, since 1975, anything between 5 and 35 per cent of countries in any given year have been in a banking crisis, except for a few years in the mid-2000s (Chang, Ha-Joon. Economics: The User’s Guide (p.80)).

Some may have been surprised that I mentioned my recent trip to Singapore along with that to China as inspiration for this piece. Why would I put these two very different countries together? Isn’t Singapore the poster child of a free market economy? When I was in Singapore, I went to Maxwell street food market and I had a bowl of black chicken and ginseng soup. It was exquisite. I was amazed that something of that quality could cost only about 8.5 Singaporean dollars. When I expressed my surprise to a local, I was told that the hawker street markets are subsidized by the government to keep them affordable and protect the culture of street food. I also learnt that many things are also subsidized by the government, principally housing, both rental and ownership. This is possible because the government owns 90% of the land that is then rented/leased to residents. Over 80% of the population live in public housing flats, yet at the same time can own a lease for the period of 99 years on these flats. The Singaporean government is also a big player in the wider economy through its SEOs such as Temasek. In 2020 Singaporean SOEs contributed 36.5% to its GDP, compared to the international average of 10% (Chang, Ha-Joon. Economics: The User’s Guide (p.49)). China’s SOEs contributed 25% of its GDP in 2020. Similar to the Singaporean government, the Chinese government owns all the land in China which is then leased out to citizens and enterprises. Even though Singapore is considered a parliamentary democratic republic with a multiparty system, it is essentially a one party state, People’s Action Party (PAP), just like China. The PAP has governed Singapore since 1965 and has 89% of parliamentary seats.

Am I saying that the Singaporean and Chinese economic systems are the best? No I’m not. But I believe there is a lot to learn from them. Just like Deng Xiaoping and his team learnt from capitalist societies and applied market economy principles while maintaining a centralized government that promotes economic development through public ownership and state owned enterprises. It is well overdue to admit and accept that capitalism, in its current form, isn’t the best we have. Without this no reform will come. Of course this requires visionary, realistic and humble leadership. Alas, this admission and acceptance is very hard to achieve in the West, as Bruce Lee wrote: “The Western approach to reality is mostly through theory, and theory begins by denying reality — to talk about reality, to go around reality, to catch anything that attracts our sense — intellect and abstract it away from reality itself.”(Lee, Bruce. Striking Thoughts: Bruce Lee’s Wisdom for Daily Living (pp. 15-16). No wonder the neoclassical school of economics with its love for theory and fantasy (that the market is a rational entity that requires minimum government intervention) over how the economy actually works in the real world has had a predominant hold on Western government policies for decades.

I started this year in the future. No I didn’t develop some super power, nor did I do a Michael J. Fox and fly in a specially built supersonic transporter vehicle back to the future. All I did was buy a ticket and fly on a regular plane to China! Eh?!? You see, when I told a friend I was in China for the new year holidays he replied, “you are in the most futuristic country.” He isn’t the only person to have described China to me as the future. So what did I find in the future?

The good news is that I can still speak the language of the future! The bad news is that reading it is still a struggle. Not surprising as my Du Chinese app tells me that I can recognize just 1301 characters. As I mentioned before, my goal was to be able to read 1500 characters before my trip to China. But let’s not focus on the bad so back to the good news. 

I walked into the arrivals lounge at Kunming airport when a man approached me to ask if I wanted a taxi. I sternly replied: ”不用了“. Just like that I was 金笛 (Jin Di, my Chinese name) again. She knows better than to get into a 黑车 (illegal taxi) at the airport.  Instead she approached an airport security guard and asked where the official taxi rank was. She got into the taxi and instructed the driver to take her to her hotel. After she checked into the hotel, went and found a place to eat. At the restaurant, she didn’t hesitate to complain to the manager about other customers smoking at the table next to her. I watched her, surprised by how easily the words in Mandarin came to her as I hadn’t been to China for almost ten years. Yet I felt very comfortable and even confident in being my Jin Di self again. When I reconnected with old friends in Beijing, including my old Chinese teacher, they too expressed their surprise that I could still communicate as well as before when I lived in China. They asked how I managed it. I couldn’t say it was because I had 努力学习, been a diligent student, otherwise my character knowledge would be better. The honest answer is it was down to TV shows. Yep! The years of binge watching shows on 腾讯视屏 (Teng Xun Shi Ping) has paid off.

Re-Discovery

The next thing that burst out of me was my love for the food in China. Yeah, you can get some good Chinese food outside China but trust me it pales in comparison. When I looked at the menu at the first restaurant I went to I was confused that they didn’t have 木耳凉菜 (black fungus mushroom salad). I called the waitress over and asked her where it was. She said they didn’t have it. Up until that moment I didn’t know that I had to have mu’er (木耳). You see, it was one of my most loved discoveries I made while living in China. There is something about the perfect combination of jelly but crunchy texture tossed with finely chopped chilies, sesame oil, soy sauce and vinegar garnished with coriander leaves that never fails to fill me with joy. Not one to give up easily, I asked her if they had any dish with mu’er. She pointed to one dish, and I ordered it. It wasn’t a cold dish and nor was mu’er the star but it would do for that night. When it came I quickly picked out all the mu’er and ate it. I told myself I must find it for my next meal. Sure enough, the next day I did, at a simple noodles shop and it was as good as I had remembered. 

What I did find on my first day back in China was one of my other best discoveries, dragon fruit. There it was at the first supermarket I walked into, neatly displayed in a large pile, and it didn’t cost €14-17 per kilo! That is how much it cost when it was available in Europe so I only had it as a special treat. And they had it in the red, my preferred version.  I quickly filled up my basket with dragon fruit (and mangosteen, another favourite). I promised myself that I was going to have dragon fruit every day I was in China. I did. The other thing I ate every day was rice! White rice! Sometimes twice a day. It was amazing! For years I had limited myself to eating rice once/twice per week because I was suffering from the delusion that it would make me fat and/or increase inflammation, blah, blah. Not only did I eat ALL the rice I wanted I also ate any 饼 (bing, pancake) I fancied too. I had forgotten about all the delicious and different types of bings you could find in China. I also very quickly got reacquainted with the best snacks in the world! Chicken feet, duck neck, wings and head, pig’s feet and perfectly crunchy pig’s ears cooked in spicy and non-spicy varieties. At the end of a day of walking around Kunming I joyfully munched my way through a bag of these snacks.  Each time I would ask myself how could I have stayed away so long from all this deliciousness? With every  meal I had I would marvel at the diversity and scrumptiousness of food in China. I could write several dissertations on the food in China so best to stop here.

Fresh Eyes

On my return, another friend of mine asked me about my trip to China. When I shared my impression he said I sounded like a Chelsea football club supporter like he was, that saw everything the club did as the best. I reflected on his comment, because I generally shy away from joining or supporting any form of club. More importantly in this case, I was away from China for almost 10 years which I believe meant I could see it with fresh eyes. I decided to start my return to China in Kunming,  a place I hadn’t been before because I wanted to see the country without nostalgia. 

Nevertheless, the first thing that struck me about  Kunming driving from the airport to the centre of the city was how familiar it looked. The same mish-mash of ugly to bland tall buildings that I used to see in Beijing. It was clear that the buildings were built purely for utilitarian purposes and not to also be aesthetically pleasing. I saw sign posts of familiar global brands– Starbucks, McDonalds, Lululemon, Muji, etc., mixed with Chinese brands like Xiaomi, Bank of China and Luckin Coffee. The one thing that struck me very quickly as new was the number of Chinese car brands I saw mingling with e-bikes. I didn’t see anyone on a push bike (and the entire time I was there). And local car brands dominated foreign car brands. This was surprising to me as I hadn’t realized that there were so many Chinese car brands. and that were electric and hybrid models, hence the charging infrastructure that could be seen all over the city. I was curious to see if my perception of what I saw on the streets of Kunming (and later in Beijing) reflected reality–sales data. According to China Association of Automobile Association (CAAM) in 2024 the percentage of foreign car brands sold in 2024 was 34.8%. And has been decreasing, it was 60.8% in 2019. Not surprisingly judging by the number of times I saw the “Build Your Dreams” slogan on car back bumpers, BYD was the best selling car brand last year. Electric vehicles accounted for nearly half–47.9% sold. In Europe last year only 22.6% of the cars sold were electric.

I expected the airports in Beijing to be good, and the new Daxing airport to be impressive (it was!) but I was stunned to see that the airport in Kunming was better than any I’ve used in recent years in the US and in Europe (with the exception perhaps Heathrow airport). What is striking about this is that it is an airport in a second-tier city and in one of the least developed regions in China. It is better not just in terms of the actual building but also in terms of the services. There were many different types of restaurants and ones that had food I could actually eat. I struggle to find food that I consider both healthy and appetizing at airports in Europe and the US so I always travel with my own food. The other thing I always carry with me is a water bottle to fill up at the “free” water fountains at airports. I’ve often been put off by the dirty state of the fountains, if they are even available. Not only could I easily find water fountains in Kunming airport but they were super clean with options for cold, room temperature and hot water. Unfortunately, the airport still had all the typical luxury retail brands that populate all major airports. I pay special attention to the airports of any country I visit because I believe that you can tell a lot about a country by the state of its airport. It will tell you how they perceive themselves and visitors.

Going back home

I arrived at Daxing, Beijing’s newest airport, both excited and anxious. I was excited to be back in the city that was my home for 8 years and to be reunited with old friends and places I used to frequent. I was nervous that I might not recognize anything. From the back of the taxi as we drove to my hotel, I tentatively looked out of the window. I was struck by how I didn’t recognize any of the roads, buildings, shopping centers, or names of metro stations we passed. I wondered if any of the old Beijing I knew still existed? This went on for about 40 minutes until we drove past Panjiayuan station which I recognized and even some of the streets around it. A sign of relief came over me. As we drove onto the second ring road past the Guangqumen, Jianguomen, and then Chaoyangmen districts,  and past buildings such as the Soho Galaxy building and Poly Theatre, I became more and more excited and less nervous. When we turned onto Gongti North Road , I saw that my favourite clothes shop in Beijing was still there right next to the old post office just as I left it. I was ecstatic. The Beijing I knew was still around! As soon as I checked and dropped my bags I rushed to the store.

I entered like a kid walking into a sweet shop on the day she receives her week’s allowance. The two storey building had been modernized. It had a sort of Brutalist vibe to it, solid, distinctive yet subtle and timeless, just like their clothes. As soon as I walked into the store I recognized the layout, it had changed little.  I burst out to the shop assistant that greeted me that I was so glad to be back. I showed her the black wool cardigan I was wearing that I had purchased there 11 years ago. Another staff member came over to join us. We both immediately recognized each other. She commented that I hadn’t been in for a while. I replied yes, that it’s been too long.  She let me know that they just celebrated their 30th anniversary. I congratulated her and the store. This store represents one of my most treasured memories about Beijing and China. Their designs are very much rooted in traditional Chinese clothing, but modernized in their unique style. Every single item I’ve bought from them starting from the first one in 2008 (when I discovered it) has not only lasted but is still in great condition. I let her take a picture of my cardigan. I wasted no time in trying on new items and promptly purchased a blue and grey wool jacket that I have worn every day since then except when I was in Singapore and it was in the wash. 

The next day I discovered other known and loved sites. The massage place on Chunxiu Road, was at the exact location where the Daifus (doctors as they are called since they are trained in Traditional Chinese Medicine) healed my aches and tensions for years. To my extra delight one of the Daifus from the old days was there and he remembered me!  He treated me quietly and swiftly rubbed away all the knots I had been carrying since I was last there. I was on a roll! I had no problem finding my way around the neighborhoods of Dongzhimen, Sanlitun, Liufang and Wudaokou as they had changed very little. This is because the major transformation of these areas had already taken place, a part of which I was fortunate to witness from my first visit to Beijing in 2003 and during the time I lived there. In my 10 year absence the major changes could be seen from the fourth ring road (Beijing is divided into ring six roads with the first ring at  the center of the city, from Fobbiden City) and beyond, and more so in the outer neighborhoods and suburbs of Beijing.  Hence why everything I saw  from Daxing airport, in the south fifth ring road till when I got to the edge of the south third ring road in Panjiayuan seemed new. When I went out to Shunyi on the north sixth ring road it was exactly the same. Shunyi was an area I frequented often and it was a place to use a Chinese idiom where “birds don’t defecate and hens don’t lay eggs”, basically it was remote and desolate. Now it is a thriving metropolis. It was remarkable to see. 

Back to the future again

I’ve pondered  what it is that makes China futuristic. Last month, I had a conversation with an American business executive who has lived in China for a long time and he too said that “China was the future.” I asked him what he meant by that and he replied because it was leading in green and new energy. I’ve heard this response many times before. I think it is too simplistic. In my opinion what makes China futuristic or the future, (but I think the right adjective should be formidable) is that it has a very long-term vision and is able to take necessary steps to realize its vision with clear and measurable outcomes. The vision is enshrined in its 5-year plans (that have been in practice since 1953) . And it can do this regardless of whether it is to eliminate poverty or pollution or to develop its own chip technology. Let’s go back to the plethora of Chinese NEV (new energy vehicles, which include hybrids, battery powered, and fully electric) brands I recently saw on the streets of Kunming and Beijing as an example. In the opinion of authors Feng Kaidong and Chen Junting,  this is the result of government policies implemented from 2009 with initiatives such as the ‘Ten Cities, A Thousand Vehicles’ NEV demonstration and many pilot projects, with active participation from both local and central governments to ensure that a supply chain for NEVs was created. Between 2010 and 2020, the central government provided over RMB¥150 billion in subsidies for NEV purchases, attracting industry participants in the early stages of development. Most of today’s active domestic parts suppliers in the NEV sector were established during this time. This enabled China to meet its target of having 500,000 NEVs in 2015, about 1% of total car sales. By 2022, it had reached 25.6%, meaning that China achieved the 20% target that it had set for 2025 three years ahead of the schedule. I would argue that it started even before 2009 if you look at China’s 11th 5-year plan for 2006-2011 which was formulated during the 10th 5-year plan (2001-2005) period. In the 11th 5-year plan strong emphasis was placed on moving to high-value and low carbon technology development, energy conservation and emissions reduction. If you look at details of the plan you will see that it includes specific objectives for the automobile industry:  “Reinforce the independent innovation ability in the automobile industry and accelerate the development of automobile engine, automobile electronics, key assemblies and parts and components with independent intellectual property rights. Exert the function of backbone enterprises and improve the market share of passenger cars of independent brands. Encourage the development and use of energy saving and environmental protection and new type fuel automobiles” (Guidelines of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, pg13).

K-Drama life

After I left Beijing I flew to Seoul. My intention for visiting it was to immerse myself in real life with the streets, people and food I had been seeing all these years in K-Drama. Walk around Itaewon (as in the show Itaewon Class), check!  Share a table at a food stall with locals, and eat Tkeokbokki, check!  Bonus, the locals shared their rice wine with me. Eat barbecue with generous banchan as opposed to the stingy ones you get in Europe, check! What I didn’t expect from my time in Seoul was that it would show me how remarkable the changes I had just witnessed on my return to China were. I had been to Seoul a couple of times before. The first time I visited was in 2010 while I was living in Beijing. I remember that I was so impressed by what I saw then–the buildings, environment, shops, art galleries, and how well put together people were, that at one point, I said to myself that “Seoul was like 37 years ahead of Beijing.” Since I was last in Seoul, 13 years have passed. This time round, I was shocked to see that not only has Beijing caught up with Seoul but in some aspects surpassed it. Back then Seoul’s streets were full of its home grown car brands, Beijing wasn’t. Now Beijing too has plenty of Chinese car brands taking up space. People in Seoul were no longer more fashionable and well put together than people in Beijing. This can also be seen in the shops. I actually found the clothes shops in Beijing more interesting than the ones in Seoul. 

For me the most striking change is perhaps in the air quality. Back in 2010 (and until I left China) the air quality in Beijing was regularly hazardous so it was nice to be in clean air Seoul. The entire time I was in Beijing, 8 days, the air quality was excellent, with clear skies every day and this was in winter. In the past winter was the most polluted time of the year due to the running of the heating system. This time round in Seoul the air quality was visibly inferior to Beijing’s. In fact, a day before I was due to fly to Seoul I was a bit worried because when I looked at the weather app its AQI (air quality index) was classified as ‘unhealthy’. The other noticeable difference is in the infrastructure. Beijing now has two superior airports. Beijing’s metro system has surpassed Seoul’s. In 2010 Beijing had just seven metro lines, now it has 29 compared to Seoul’s 23.  The one area where I think Seoul still has the edge over Beijing is environmental aesthetics. I don’t know of one neighborhood in Beijing that I think is pretty or beautiful. Though I don’t know Seoul as well as I know Beijing, I can easily name three neighborhoods that are pretty to look at: Itaewon, Bukchon Village and Gangnam.

Comparing Beijing and Seoul made me remember a comment a Chinese client once made about 13 years ago. He was explaining to me why he chose to buy a Japanese made humidifier instead of one made in China: “When I travel to the US and Europe, I think yeah we can catch up with these guys. And even beat them. But when I go to Japan, I think not.” He laughed. I haven’t been to Japan in 11 years so I’m looking forward to what I will discover on my next trip there and how it compares to China.

In the meantime, I’m more motivated to continue learning Chinese characters because it is pretty hard to be illiterate in China. It is now a very digitalized society, and everything is linked to an app and to WeChat. Even breathing is linked to WeChat. Joke. Seriously, not being able to comfortably read text in these apps was limiting. And not all apps have in-built translators and/or text scanners. I felt illiterate many times when I was trying to order a service on WeChat. My old Chinese teacher said that instead of the 15 minutes I spend daily studying characters, I ought to do 30 minutes. I replied: “慢慢来 (man, man, lai), bit by bit”. I don’t like to set unrealistic goals but I know for sure I will continue. 我会加油 (wo hui jia you)！

I’ve been pretty miserable this year. At the same time I have also experienced an enormous amount of joy. As a rule and practice, I make it a point to find joy every day. I find it really helps to keep me hopeful. But, why have I been so miserable? 

I’m absolutely horrified that I live at a time where so many children and other innocent people are killed daily in Gaza for over a year while Western governments that for my entire life have proclaimed to be beacons of diplomacy and protectors of human rights have not only not intervened to stop it, but have been complicit. Then there is the Russia/Ukraine war that has been going on for almost 3 years with an estimate of a million killed. A war that could have ended a month after it started thanks to diplomacy but Western governments prevented it. This year marked half a century since I’ve been alive so this isn’t unfortunately the first genocide I’ve witnessed. There were the genocides in Darfur, Rwanda, Bosnia and Herzegovina. There also have been a few wars too, Afghanistan, Iraq, Congo, Syria etc… Nor am I unfamiliar with Western governments’ foreign policy record of initiating, financing and participating in wars and destruction of countries in the global south. Knowing this doesn’t make me feel better, in fact, it has made me feel worse. Don’t we know better? I’ve been wondering why we still have wars and genocides? 

“There is a powerful fantasy of progress that lurks beneath the surface of contemporary culture, a fantasy to which we have all subscribed in some form or another. While scientific and technical advances over the last two centuries have greatly improved the comfort and length of our lives, they have facilitated no comparable moral progress.” (Hollis, James. Finding Meaning in the Second Half of Life: How to Finally, Really Grow Up (p. 207)).

“Over the last several million years, our brains grew and grew, tripling in size from those of our chimpanzee cousins. But for the last two hundred thousand years or so, our brains have stayed the same size. This has led evolutionary psychologists—people who focus on how the human psyche has changed over vast time scales—to conclude that “our modern skulls house a Stone Age mind.” (Klaas, Brian. Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us (p. 71)). 

Based on the above quotes, psychologists and psychoanalysts believe we don’t in fact know better.  Nevertheless, there is data to suggest that we are less violent than before. If you look at the rate of intentional homicide globally it declined from 6.93 per 100,000 in 2000 to 5.20 per 100,000 in 2023 (you can filter to see per region and country, as well as data on other types of violence here). In terms of conflicts, the number of direct deaths (excluding diseases and famine caused by war)  from state-based conflicts for both civilians and military personnel decreased from about 550,000 in 1950 to under 100,000 per year for most of the period from 1990 to 2021. This figure rose to 276,000 deaths in 2023. The current conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Sudan and Ukraine will most likely nudge this figure up even further. Another unfortunate upward trend is that the number of violent conflicts (violent crises, limited war and war) have increased since 2005. In 2023 there were 22 wars, 21 limited wars and 177 violent crises, compared to 2 wars, 26 limited wars and 90 violent crises in 2005.

We may be less violent in the aggregate sense but the impact of our violent conflicts are greater. Brown University’s Watson’s Institute of International Affairs notes: “The U.S. post-9/11 wars have forcibly displaced at least 38 million people in and from Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, the Philippines, Libya and Syria. This number exceeds the total displaced by every war since 1900, except World War II.” And “more than 7.6 million children under five in post-9/11 war zones are suffering from acute malnutrition.”  Further, the UNRA (United Nations Refugee Agency) estimated that at the end of 2023 117 million people were forcibly displaced. This constitutes a rise of 8 per cent or 8.8 million people compared to the end of 2022 and continues a series of year-on-year increases over the last 12 years. Other detrimental impacts include “scholasticide”, put simply, is the systematic destruction of educational infrastructure and institutions (see here for full definition). It is estimated that nearly 90% of schools have been destroyed in Gaza since October 2023. And there is trauma you are left with if you’ve experienced and/or witnessed wars, genocide and displacement, which can last generations.

Our Stone Age mind

For most part of this year I felt pretty down on humanity. I hated that humanity could cause so much pain and havoc. Knowing that I was part of humanity, and that there was nothing I could do to prevent this suffering made me really miserable and despondent. Speaking with a friend of mine a couple of months ago,  I expressed how sad I was that I live in a world where you can commit and livestream genocide for over a year without any repercussions, and that I have lost faith in humanity. She reminded me that there is a huge gap between the ruling and media class and ordinary people. That she actually has a lot of faith in the people because the more they see what’s happening the more they don’t want to support it. It’s just these entrenched interests are really entrenched. To hear this from a person, a long time foreign correspondent in the Middle East, and who has witnessed some pretty gruesome and inhumane acts to be still so hopeful, made me feel a bit better. It is true the vast majority of ordinary people I know are against genocide and their governments using their taxes to fund wars and genocides hence why many people (including my friend) all over the world are risking their lives and livelihood to speak out. But there is this nagging question (intensified by this year’s US presidential election) I have, why do ordinary people keep electing and/or following these leaders? Leaders can’t be leaders without followers. And in a democracy you can’t be an official without people electing you. As I wrote before, I personally don’t vote as I can’t bring myself to vote for any of these politicians. This is one of the key questions Brian Klass addresses in his book Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us. 

Klass argues that our social world has changed but our brains haven’t changed since the Stone Age. We have learned to pick leaders for reasons that no longer reflect modern realities. “Evolution has burned into our brains a set of templates for selecting those who lead us, and these templates are activated whenever we encounter a specific problem requiring coordination (such as in times of war).” It’s one of the reasons that authoritarian-style strongmen (the term is no accident) gin up fear or provoke conflicts to consolidate power. They’re activating our hunter-gatherer instincts to turn to someone who seems strong when we perceive a threat” (Klaas, Brian. Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us (p. 76)). These templates make us have a strong bias for male leaders hence why the vast majority of heads of state and CEOs are men, and typically ones that are tall, as height would be of greater significance for a male hunter or warrior. Another hardwired bias is to prefer those who look like us and to distrust those who don’t. Back in the Stone Age, the likelihood of meeting different people from other parts of the world who were most likely of different racial groups was virtually impossible. However, this hasn’t been the case for hundreds of years but this fear has stayed with us. Hence, why racism is present even in the most diverse countries such as the US, France and UK. This distrust of others isn’t just limited to race, it also includes social class, religion and even which football club you support. 

If there is indeed a huge difference between the ruling class and the ordinary people, from a social class perspective, why then do we trust them? By trust, I mean vote for and/or follow them. Unlike ants that use a pheromone system to coordinate and navigate their environment, we use hierarchy. The transition from hunter-gatherer to agricultural society created settlements with bigger groups of people, which required coordination and collaboration for survival, which necessitated leaders and key decision makers.  Hierarchy according to Peter Turchin brought us civilization. “Hierarchy is like fire. It can be used to cook food or to burn people” (Klaas, Brian. Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us (p. 36)). When used well hierarchy can cook up peaceful and stable societies. For example, countries that are regarded as some of the best governed such as Singapore, Switzerland, and Norway are also some of the safest and most affluent. On the Global Organised Crime Index these countries scored 3.47, 4.87 and 3.75 (out of a 10, being the highest of criminality) respectively. Poverty rate for these countries 12%, 14.7% and 12.7%. And when hierarchy is poorly executed it can have adverse impact. Countries with poor levels of governance such as Nigeria and Democratic Republic of Congo (the DRC) also have a high level of criminality at 7.25/10 and 7.38/10 respectively. They are also some of the poorest, with an estimated poverty rate of 40.1% for Nigeria and for the DRC it is 63.9%. 

It occurred to me that perhaps fear of the ruling class is an important factor in why we follow them, especially when you take into account tools of control such as prisons and arms that have gotten more sophisticated and newer tools such as mobile and internet systems that can monitor our every step. It certainly isn’t because we believe in and trust them if you look at data on public trust in government. For the US the figure has been declining since the 1960s when above 77% of people in the US say they trust the federal government to do what is right ‘most of the time’ to currently only 22%. The figure is similar in the UK at 24%. And trust in the press in the UK is at 13%, while in the US it is currently at 31%, down from 68% in 1972. 

Who rule us

If we do need hierarchy to run our large societies, why is it then that so many of the people who head our public institutions are dreadful? Klaas gives several reasons but I will highlight only a couple. The first, there is a high level of psychopathy  amongst those who are drawn to power and acquire it.  According to Kevin Dutton, a research psychologist at Oxford University and the author of The Wisdom of Psychopaths, the ten professions with the most psychopaths are CEOs, lawyers, TV/radio personalities, salespeople, surgeons, journalists, police officers, members of the clergy, chefs, and civil servants.  (Klaas, Brian. Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us (p. 98)). It doesn’t mention politicians, but it does mention civil servants who are unelected government officials. Many US politicians are also lawyers. A Harvard Law Review article from 2015 laments the declining dominance of lawyers in the US Congress from 60-80% in the 20th century to 40% in 2015. A background in business or banking is the next most common background for US politicians. In the 114th Congress, 231 members of the House of Representatives had previous occupations that fell under the “business or banking” category. Furthermore, one study found that Washington, DC, has by far the most psychopaths per capita of any region in the United States (Klaas, Brian. Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us (p. 99)). The UK parliament also has a high proportion of lawyers. For example, the current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was a human rights lawyer (how ironic!).

The second reason is what Klaas referred to as psychological distance, the length of proximity between the ruler and the ruled. For example, how far you are from the war you’ve initiated. It is easier to send other people’s kids, husbands and wives if none of yours are going. It is easier to drop bombs on people thousands of miles away that you don’t know. According to Klaas psychological distance is therefore a dilemma that can be solved by what social scientists call a Goldilocks solution. Anyone making tough and potentially damaging or deadly decisions needs to have just the right amount of emotional proximity (Klaas, Brian. Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us (p. 218)). When it comes to wars, unfortunately, this distance has been increasing thanks to technical advances in drones and missiles. Missiles can travel thousands of miles away with very little human involvement, just a couple of people to operate and without leaving their military base.

I end the year hopeful. Because as the late Archbishop Desmond Tutu wrote, to be hopeful is to hold “a steadfast faith that there can never be a situation that is utterly, totally hopeless. To choose hope is to step firmly forward into the howling wind, baring one’s chest to the elements, knowing that, in time, the storm will pass.” (The Book of Joy, p.122). The current killing and destruction storm will pass. We humans are resilient, hence why we’ve survived this long. Also we have an innate distaste for injustice hence why so many ordinary people all over the world have continued to risk their lives to speak out against the genocide in Gaza and other atrocities.